Economic Complexity Index

Also known as: ECI

framework · economics · structured-empirical

Hausmann and Hidalgo's measure of national productive capability from export structure.

The Economic Complexity Index, developed by Ricardo Hausmann and César Hidalgo with collaborators, measures the productive knowledge embedded in a country's economy by analyzing the structure of its exports — specifically the diversity of products it exports competitively and the ubiquity of those products (how many other countries also export them competitively). The intuition is that diverse exports of relatively non-ubiquitous products signal the presence of broad productive capabilities that are hard to acquire and hard to displace. The original 'method of reflections' algorithm iteratively refines country and product complexity scores until convergence; subsequent variants use eigenvalue decomposition for the same logic. ECI has demonstrated empirical predictive power for long-run GDP per-capita growth — countries whose complexity exceeds what their current income predicts tend to grow faster — and underpins the related Product Space and Atlas of Economic Complexity tools used in development-policy diagnostics.

Originators

Ricardo Hausmann; César Hidalgo; collaborators including Bailey Klinger, Albert-László Barabási, and the Harvard Growth Lab high

Year / Decade

2007 (initial product space work); 2009 (Hidalgo-Hausmann PNAS); 2011 (Atlas of Economic Complexity) high

Primary sources

Hidalgo, C.A. & Hausmann, R. (2009). 'The building blocks of economic complexity', PNAS, Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C.A., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., Simoes, A., & Yildirim, M.A. (2011). The Atlas of Economic Complexity high

Core components

Primary use case

Long-run growth diagnostics at the country level; industrial policy and export-diversification strategy; identifying nearby products a country could feasibly add; tool for development institutions (World Bank, IDB) and national planning ministries.

Common criticisms

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